Humble
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Everything posted by Humble
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What would you say if someone told you that they consistently produce an average annual return of 3,000-4,000%? You would probably think it's too good to be true, right? That's what I thought when I reviewed a list of best performing investment newsletters reported by Pro-Trading-Profits, an independent advisory monitoring site. So I decided to check out one of the services reporting those remarkable returns. Click here to view the article
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We closed 16 trades in March - https://steadyoptions.com/performance, but as I mentioned, some of them were opened before you joined.
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Do you returns include commissions? Our published returns don't. You also missing few trades (I assume they were opened before you joined). SPY/TLT April combo was closed for 11.2% gain, not 22.9%. I believe over time you will learn to get better fills and know better what are good prices to enter. Some trades are consistent winners, and sometimes are worth to pay slightly more (TIF is not one of them).
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First, it is always closed trades for that month. Regarding compounding of the portfolio value - it is done monthly. So all March trades are based on portfolio value of 12,126 at the beginning of the month, so the last value is 12126*0.10*6.7%+13009= 13,090. The table of monthly returns is taken from pro-trading-profits as mentioned under the table. They use slightly different methodology (15%/trade but rounded down to the nearest whole number of contracts). It is also non-compounded. Just go to the link and see all statistics directly in PTP.
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Yesterday Mark Hulbert, whom I highly respect, published an article in MarketWatch called Investing guru predicts 12% rise in stocks over six months. Before I tell you why I think you should not trust any market forecasts from "investment gurus", I must say that I don't like the word guru in general. One of my favorite quotes is "Our world needs less gurus and more teachers. Gurus are about helping themselves become successful - teachers are about helping others become successful." - Joseph C. Kunz Jr. Click here to view the article
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Thanks. I'm very excited about 2015. We are being more selective, so winning ratio is much higher than previous years, and overall gains are very solid, with minimal drawdowns. Minimizing losses is the key, now more than ever. With most major indexes straggling, SO continues to provide solid gains month after month, regardless of market direction.
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While most major indexes continue to straggle, SteadyOptions continues to deliver strong gains. SteadyOptions flagship service produced 47.4% ROI in Q1 2015, based on fixed $1,000 allocation per trade (non-compounded) and 6 trades open. This translated to 28.4% return on the whole account, based on 10% allocation per trade. The winning ratio was a remarkable 82%. Check out the Performance page to see the full results. Please note that those results are based on real fills, not hypothetical performance. Click here to view the article
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No, because the example that Mark gives refers to buying calls at the same expiration as the original trade and holding till expiration. We usually don't do that.
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It's official now: Steady Condors has completely erased last year's losses and drawdown. Steady Condors has just finished another profitable month of trading with gains of 7.7% on margin, and 6.2% per unit for April expiration. This makes the year to date return 17% on a whole account. Of particular importance is that this month’s gains bring Steady Condors back to new equity highs after a somewhat lengthy (yet statistically expected) drawdown over the last year. Those who had the discipline and patience to stay the course have been rewarded. Risk management, as always, is what made the difference. Click here to view the article
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Yes. I opened a ticket.
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Again, the underlying price is usually not impacted.
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By Gery Nagy, optionsrules.com Many people believe in the above methods, indicators. I am skeptical about the usability of them. I'll tell you why ... Fibonacci, Gann, Elliott - all of them bring the laws of nature into the trading. These are formulas and laws that can be found in nature and form certain patterns. Click here to view the article
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You are right, it's a lot of considerations. Usually I have my entry target price, which in most cases I specify in the discussion topic. Then I might place limit orders on several strikes and wait. Sometimes "playing" with the order helps - meaning cancelling the order and resubmitting it, changing 1-2 cents back and forward etc. Scaling in and out of positions helps as well. Getting good fills is a process. It takes time to master, and nothing substitutes experience. I wasn't born with it, it took years of experience and hard work. Some instruments are more difficult to trade than others, and when liquidity and fills are an issue, I don't trade it.
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Well, if you knew in advance that the stock will double, you would buy OTM options expiring in one year and bank few hundred percent gain. But this is hindsight. And this is exactly the issue: you know what is the best strategy only in hindsight. If you knew that the markets will be moving sideways, you would trade only iron condors, wouldn't you? If you knew about 2008 crash in advance, you would buy puts, right? if you knew that NFLX will be up 18% after the last earnings, you would be OTM calls. But you don't. So you trade based on probabilities and your best knowledge.
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Our members already know that we use the data from OptionSlam.com to research our earnings trades. OptionSlam.com has been a very valuable resource for us in the past few years. We are pleased to announce that we have reached an agreement with OptionSlam to offer a 15% discount on annual INSIDER Memberships to SteadyOptions readers. Click here to view the article
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I'm often asked by novice options traders what is the best options strategy. I'm sorry to disappoint you, but there is no such thing "the best options strategy". Each strategy has its pros and cons. Each strategy will work the best under certain market conditions, and no strategy will work under all market conditions. One of the first things you need to decide before placing your first trade is: do I want to bet on direction (bullish/bearish) or I want to be able to make money regardless of market direction? In the first case, you have the choice of the following major strategies: Click here to view the article
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As a side note, execution is critical in any short term trading system. SO is no different. It's one thing when you buy a stock and intend to hold it few years, and another thing buying and selling within few days. The shorter the time frame, the more critical execution becomes. Trading is a business. As in any business, prices are involved, and our profitability of success will always depend on our ability to get good fills. Every business revolves around this cost equation. If getting good prices was so easy, there wouldn't be any markets/any business...
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Take a look: https://ibis.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=1685 Here are two key points: Unlike other smart routers, IB SmartRouting never routes and forgets about your order. It continuously evaluates fast changing market conditions and dynamically re-routes all or parts of your order seeking to achieve optimal execution and maximize your rebate. IB SmartRouting represents each leg of a spread order independently and enters each leg at the best possible venue. And this is true, as I have seen more than once that one leg was filled at one exchange and the other leg at another exchange. I don't think other brokers do it. I know that TOS doesn't.
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The price of the ETF is impacted only by prices of individual stocks that are part of the ETF. It will not be impacted by bug buyers or sellers. In your example, if the stocks that are sold by large institutions go down, the price of the ETF goes down proportionally, even if they buy that ETF. ETF prices unlike stocks are not impacted by demand/supply. Of course that doesn't mean that there will not be some temporary mispricing, due to very large orders. But most of the time, the price will return to reflect the "true" value of the ETF, which is close to NAV (Net Asset Value).
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For SPX and SPY, I believe no order would impact the prices of the options. They are too big and too liquid. For other less liquid ETFs, there might be temporary change in the options prices, but not ETF prices.
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And if you think about it one step further, it would be actually a blessing to get assigned OTM options. Getting assigned 41 calls is basically being short the stock at 41, while the stock is at 39.70. So even if this happens, you cover the stock, book the profit (the difference between 39.70 and 41) and sell the long calls for whatever value they have. This would be a HUGE gain.
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It never makes sense to exercise option which is OTM. The option holder will give up all the premium of the option for much smaller dividend.
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Thank you Chris for posting this. And yes, I'm willing to offer a free month of subscription to whoever does a professional Webex presentation of this topic, or any other topic relevant to our trading system.
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Thank you Richard.
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We closed today our Steady Condors March trades for an average gain of 7.5% before commissions, which translates to 5.8% return on the whole account after commissions. Steady Condors first goal is to manage risk and to prevent big losses. We don't promise you some absurd numbers like 10%/month or 5%/week, but we are proud to report performance in the most honest and transparent way possible. I will explain later how our performance reporting is different from other newsletters, but let me start by quoting Jesse Blom's post on the forum. Click here to view the article
