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Humble

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Everything posted by Humble

  1. Not all. Our per earnings calendars are much more resilient.
  2. It could work - if COST doesn't move. It it does, the calendar will be toast.
  3. Humble

    ONE software

    For historical prices, everything is in ONE. For live prices, you need broker feed.
  4. Humble

    ONE software

    Yes it has, with 5 minutes intervals. Full description: http://www.optionnetexplorer.com/Explorer.aspx
  5. Humble

    ONE software

    Yes.
  6. @greenspan76This has been my experience too. From time to time I hear negative comments from users who tried to switch from TOS to IB. There is no doubt that those platforms have completely different design, but I strongly disagree that IB platform is badly designed. Sure you need some learning curve, and once you are used to some concept, it is difficult to make a mental switch. I assume the same would be true for users who try to switch from IB to TOS - but you rarely hear those complains because for someone who has been with IB for a while, there is really no reason to switch to TOS. I have been with IB for 10+ years, never had any issues with the platform.
  7. If you are serious about trading, you need decent software anyway. TOS doesn't have fraction of the tools the ONE has. As for savings - I guess it depends how much you trade. If you trade 10k SO portfolio, you can easily trade 150-200 contacts per month, or 2,000+ contracts per year. 0.50 savings per contract (assuming you got 1.25/contract with TOS) translates to over $1,000 savings. With larger accounts, the savings become much more significant. ONE software is around $560 for SO members.
  8. But if you do 1000 contracts, you will pay $750 with IB (much more with TOS), so even with slightly worse fills (which is still questionable) you will still save money.
  9. Some members posted feedback: https://steadyoptions.com/forums/forum/topic/3318-tradier-brokerage-special-offer/ Why there is not as much information available? I guess they are not as good in marketing and hype as Sosnoff.. At $40/month, I would give it a try, definitely before tastyworks. I spoke with their CEO few times on phone, he sounds like a decent and honest guy who managed to build a great platform without too much hype.
  10. I think tastyworks are targeting mostly TDA. I don't see many IB clients move as the commissions are almost the same (1.30 round trip at tastyworks vs. 1.50 at IB, but when you consider other costs like margin rates, assignment fees etc. it will probably be very similar). But with TDA, the price difference is huge.
  11. Humble

    AMZN Iron Fly

    I'm not sure AMZN has an edge, compared to FB. FB does move less than expected after earnings, AMZN does not. Here is the history from optionslam: As you can see, it does have some wild moves, especially prior to 2016 (this is why I considered it a good candidate for RIC, but in 2016 the behavior was not as consistent). In any case, I would consider it much less consistent candidate than FB.
  12. Thanks for sharing, appreciate it! It would be interesting to see how the execution is for less liquid instruments.
  13. Well, I hope nobody had the temptation to follow him..the trade is currently down $190k (80%).
  14. "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
  15. Risk reward doesn't tell the whole picture. The question is what is the probability to realize the 1000%? You can structure any trade with 1:10 risk reward, but those trades will have very low probability of success. in order for him to make 2.5M the stock has to go down 18%. Do you know how many times AAPL went down 18% after earnings since it went public? ZERO. It went down more than 10% only 6 times. Nothing wrong to make a low probability bet which is basically a lottery ticket if you have high conviction. The problem is he is betting his whole account on this trade. Here is a bet that I'm willing to make: if he succeeds, he will continue trading, despite him swearing to stop. He will continue till all the money is gone.
  16. Thanks for sharing. I guess some people never learn. I hope nobody on this forum is going to follow this guy.. Because if he is wrong, he will lose 100% of his account. But I guess this is not something new for him.. btw, according the options market, AAPL is expected to move around $4 after earnings. And just to clarify: the trade did not cost nothing like he claims. The trade costs about 250k in margin, which what he will lose if he is wrong. even if it stays where it is ($122) he will lose around $60,000, and $30,000 for each $1 AAPL goes above $122.
  17. It's not 2-3 studies. It's much more. But this is not the point. I'm sure he has a lot of great studies. But once you see few studies that were intentionally skewed to reach the conclusions he wanted, how can you trust him? How can a novice trader know which study is good and which is bad? it is matter of credibility. Yes, everyone makes mistakes. Including myself. But I always admit my mistakes. Unlike Sosnoff, I never say that my strategies are the only way to make money in the stock market. Have you ever seen Sosnoff admit his mistake? As for IB - this is not the place to discuss it, you can place a comment in our Brokers and commissions discussion. All I can say is that most our members are very happy with IB, and they must be doing something right to be ranked top broker by Barron's 6 years in a row. "Trade small, trade often" serves well the brokers in terms of commissions, and since tastytrade and dough are linked to Ameritrade (and now to tastyworks), it creates huge conflict of interests. I'm sure you can see that. You are partially right about audited track record. Non-audited track record is still better than no track record at all (and Sosnoff has no track record at all). You can produce whatever you want, but usually it is pretty obvious when the track record is fake. And if someone has difficulty to recognize fake track record, he can read my article Performance Reporting: The Myths And The Reality.
  18. I'm using https://www.optionslam.com/. You can get a discount for subscription - https://steadyoptions.com/articles/optionslam-discount-for-steadyoptions-r112/ Same. There are other sources, but the ultimate source is the company website. Stock market needs certainty. For example, many options traders (like us) trade earnings and need to know the exact date. It is not common, but it happens from time to time.
  19. You can also read Mark Wolfinger take on Bernie Schaeffer Schaeffers Research and his advice: https://steadyoptions.com/articles/debunking-options-guru-advice-r228/
  20. Schaeffers Research is an interesting animal. According to Hulbert Financial Digest who tracked newsletters performance till it closed last last year, the Option Advisor's aggressive portfolio shows an annualized loss of 14.6 percent since inception (as of 2005). By that measure, if you had started with $10,000 at the end of 1982 and followed the newsletter's picks for the last 23 years, you'd have $300 left. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stupid-investment-of-the-week-20054113010 They are a well oiled marketing machine, and in my opinion, this is the only reason they succeed to stay in business. Bernie Schaeffer has built a solid reputation as an options expert, so most people are not aware how bad their track record is. Maybe Schaeffer himself is not actively trading anymore, but the fact remains. You can see it in their reviews (you can find more reviews here and here), and numbers don't lie. The fact that they don't publish any track record speaks for itself
  21. I have been IB client for over 10 years. Never had any issues with their CS. Barron's ranks them #1 6 years in a row (ahead of TDAmeritrade in ALL surveys). As for tastytrade "brilliant studies" - maybe they look brilliant to novice traders who cannot really fully understand and verify them. Take a look: Another garbage study from Tasty Trade. Buying Premium Prior To Earnings - Does It Work? Can We Profit From Volatility Expansion Into Earnings? Please spend few minutes reading the links and tell me if you still believe their studies are "brilliant". In case of tastytarde, you indeed get what you pay for. Many people fail to understand a simple thing: when someone claims that only his trading method works, RUN AWAY. He will do everything to "match" the studies conclusions with his theory. What was the true purpose of tastytrade? To gain thousands of followers for their "brilliant" free studies, and then use those followers to convert them to tastyworks. But I'm actually very grateful to tastytrade. They say that our earnings straddles don't work. We don't do studies, we prove that they work with real trading, and tastytrade followers provide us a fresh supply of sellers when we buy them. P.S. I have no idea if Sheridan pays commissions to his broker. I was referring to his agreement with ONE software. and yes, we are all businessmen in the end. Nothing wrong to be a businessman and admit that you want to make money. What is wrong is repeating time after time that your goal is to help the small guy FOR FREE, while hiding huge conflicts of interest. To me this is hypocrisy.
  22. Dear Sheela, I'm sorry to hear about your losses. This is one of the biggest risks of auto-trading - you basically give your money to someone who is not an investment adviser and has zero qualifications to manage your money. All You Need to Know About Auto-Trading article describes the risks of auto-trading. I'm sure that this gentleman is now managing another website under different name. I hope you will be able to find someone who might help you.
  23. My philosophy for SO members is "learn the strategies and make them your own". This is the best way to use the service. This is why we have detailed description of each strategy, and this is why I always open discussion topic before entering. This gives members a chance to enter the trade at prices that I mention, based on the discussion topic and Dustin weekly charts. Of course it will take some time till you feel experienced enough to do it. But I believe members who are proactive rather than reactive will achieve better results. Just see our latest GOOG and TSLA discussions as examples.
  24. Humble

    A Bubble?

    I believe that timing is everything. Will US fall into recession? 100% The only question is when. It could happen tomorrow, or the markets could go up another 50% before the correction. Historically, we have bear markets every 6-8 years. Last one ended in 2009, so we should be pretty close to the next one. Will we follow historical patterns this time? The truth is nobody knows. Some pretend to know, but again, it's all about timing. Robert Prechter made himself a name by correctly predicting the 2008 crash, but people forgot that he has been predicting a crash every year for the last 30 years..
  25. Not sure why you couldn't find it - https://steadyoptions.com/forums/forum/topic/2485-my-interview-by-kirk-du-plessis-from-optionalpha/
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