One of the interesting features about options is that there is a relationship between calls, puts, and the underlying stock. And because of that relationship, some option positions are equivalent – that means identical profit/loss profiles – to others.
We last wrote about Oracle on 2017-09-03 with this same back-test -- a 3-day momentum swing trade ahead of earnings and it has followed through for 8 consecutive pre-earnings cycles with a 290% total return during that historical period. Oracle's next earnings date is 12-14-2017, but this not is not yet confirmed.
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has earnings due out Monday, October 16th, after the market closes. Seven calendar days before then would be 10-9-2017. It is time to look at the company's remarkable history of momentum into earnings events and how we can use it with options trade.
This question is not related exclusively to options, but, given the time decay element built into them, it may be particularly relevant to them.The question is this: are there any general rules that you use for exiting trades that start to go against you, especially if they are not based on an anticipation of a specific catalyst?
Microsoft has earnings due out on October 26th, 2017, after the market close, according to Wall Street Horizon. 7-days before then would be October 19th, 2017. Microsoft is the forgotten mega tech -- the third largest company in the world behind Apple and Alphabet, but it doesn't fall into any fun Acronyms, like FANG, or FAANG.
For Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), if we waited one-day, and then sold an one-week at out of the money iron condor (using weekly options), the results were quite strong. This post earnings options strategy opens two calendar after earnings to try to let the stock find equilibrium after the earnings announcement.
The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures TM ETN (NYSEARCA:VXX) is referred to as "the VXX.". The obligation of the VXX trading strategy is to match the performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index Total Return and it maintains positions in the front two-month Volatility Index (VIX) futures contracts.
One of my basic tenets in teaching people how to trade options is that rules and guidelines should not be written in stone and that there are valid reasons for accepting or rejecting some of them. When I offer a rationale or explanation or suggest course of action, it is because I have found that this specific suggestion has worked best for me.
AutoZone Inc (NYSE:AZO) has earnings due out tomorrow, 9-19-2017 before the market opens and we can look at a slightly advanced option trade that starts two calendar days after AZO earnings (9-21-2017) and lasts for the 19calendar daysto follow, that has been a winner for the last 3 years.
How would a trader like you decide to do early exercise? Say you bought calls when they were trading in the 1.0 -> 2.5 range, now underlying has risen so that calls trade bid-ask at 4.0 / 4.8 and there is strong possibility of it going higher. Also assume in another case that they trade in the 6.0 to 7.0 range.
'Volatility skew' is one of those topics that many traders ignore. It's not something that was understood in the early days (1973 +), when options began trading on an exchange. According toWikipedia: "equity options traded in American markets did not show a volatility smile before the crash of 1987, but began showing one afterward."
It does not matter how good your trading system is - you will not win 100% of the time! A fact! The way you deal with this fact will go a long way toward determining how big a winner you become. In fact, after so many years spent in the financial arena, I have absolutely no doubts in my mind that one of the most essential keys to winning islearning how to lose.